GI 101: Development and BF place different weight on emerging claims
Development extrapolates observed experience, while BF combines it with an expected unreported component. Data maturity and the expected-loss assumption drive how differently the methods react.
Original practice scenario
Expected ultimate is 2m, reported fraction .40 and reported claims .9m. Development ultimate is 2.25m; BF ultimate is .9m+2m×.60=2.1m. Explain both assumptions and repeat with reported claims .6m. A comparison should assess applicability, not average the answers automatically.
Study check
Write the assumptions, the decision being supported and one limitation. Use the current course syllabus for the required terminology and scope; this introductory guide is not a complete course summary.
Reading sources
ActNet editorial guide · October 1, 2026 · Original illustrative examples.
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