GI 301: Reserve variability needs a model and a stated horizon
A reserve estimate and a predictive distribution are different outputs. State whether uncertainty concerns ultimate losses, one-year development or another quantity, and explain which assumptions create the distribution.
Original practice scenario
Compare an original 10m point estimate with a scenario increasing severity by 10%. The resulting 11m is a sensitivity result, not a percentile without a probability model. Add a diagnostic for development stability before choosing a stochastic approach.
Study check
Write the assumptions, the decision being supported and one limitation. Use the current course syllabus for the required terminology and scope; this introductory guide is not a complete course summary.
Reading sources
ActNet editorial guide · October 1, 2026 · Original illustrative examples.
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